In August 2002, Saudi Arabia informed the US that they would not allow US forces to use its territory for an attack on Iraq, adding that they will not contribute to the cost of such a war.
Mr Bolton, the US Under-Secretary of State, went to the Kremlin on September 11, 2002, to try to persuade the Russians to back Bush's war on Iraq or, at least, not to oppose it. He was told that the Russians believe that such a war is a dangerous folly that could wreck broader international cooperation against al-Qaida and terrorism. They insist that the UN should first approve any action. They also told him that Russia could invade Georgia to destroy the Chechen rebels that are hiding in the Caucasus Mountains. Russia claims that if the US can invade Iraq without any justification, they should be allowed to invade Georgia that is harbouring "terrorists" who kill Russian soldiers. In this case, there seems to be a good reason for an invasion, at least seen through Russian eyes.
Western diplomats believe that the probabilities to kill Saddam Hussein through air strikes, or any other methods, are remote. It is well known that Saddam has many deep underground bunkers capable of protecting him and hundred other people from direct hit by conventional weapons.
Oil appears to be the key factor in the Iraq crisis. It is known that Bush and his administration have close link with the oil industry that, in turn, is very interested by the Iraqi oil fields, the second biggest after Saudi Arabia's. But France and Russia have billion-dollar contracts with Iraq, and they could be worthless if the US takes over the country. Even before September 11, 2001, the US has some doubts about Saudi Arabia, and they would like to have a back-up oil supplier if only to keep the price as low as possible. Iraq's reserves would break Saudi Arabia's hold on the oil-pricing cartel OPEC. This would be a disaster for Russia that wants to increase its sale to the west. Any weakening of the opposition to the war by France and Russia can only succeed through a deal on oil.
Vice President Cheney began a tour of twelve mostly Arab countries on Sunday March 10, 2002. His aim was to convince these countries to let the US militaries use their territory to attack Iraq. The US would also need the use of many military bases in this part of the world and they are ready to pay for it. The results of his mission are not known but, probably, Vice President Cheney had nothing much to boast about. The Arab World will not help the USA as long as the Palestinian question is not settled with a mutually acceptable agreement with Israel. As they had already done in relation to Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia refused again to let the USA use their Prince Sultan military base near Riyadh for an eventual, but always more probable, attack on Iraq. As a result, the US military forces are moving some of the equipment from Saudi Arabia to Qatar where the government is ready -at a price- to allow the use of their soil as a starting point for an attack on Iraq. Oman and Kuwait will also be used.
It is becoming clearer to most Arab countries, as well as to all the world with the exception of Britain, that the so-called regime change that the US wants to impose on Iraq, is a new term for an old concept: colonisation. What president Bush really wants is to give his oil industry backers free access to the oil fields of the Middle East. All the noise around it must be seen for what it is: brainwashing aiming to make the American people feel good while invading another country. And if Iraq is taken over by the US, other Muslim countries will follow for the same reasons.
On December 23, 2002, Germany repeated that, not only they would not participate in the military invasion of Iraq, but also they will not paid for it either.
On December 28, 2002, Saudi Arabia said that, after all, they would allow the US to use their military bases in their country, air space, and command centres if Iraq is invaded.
At the end of 2002, the Arab countries are afraid that a war with Iraq would destabilise some, if not all, their countries. Most of these countries would like to see the end of Saddam Hussein's regime, and they are now looking at a way to persuade him to step down and leave Iraq. He could perhaps go to Egypt, Libya, Cuba or North Korea. This would satisfy also many non-Arab countries, but would it satisfy President Bush?
On January 10, 2003 Turkey allowed the US military to inspect Turkish ports and air bases although the government has not yet decided if to let the US uses its bases and air space in case of war in Iraq. About 80% of the Turkish people are against such a war.
Also on January 10, 2003, a senior leader of the militant Palestinian Resistance Movement or Hamas, Abdel Aziz Rantisi, urged Iraq to defend itself against any invading troops by recruiting "thousands, tens of thousands" of suicide bombers.
On January 17, 2003, Turkey Prime Minister, Abdullah Gul, launched a major diplomatic effort to stop a possible war with its neighbour Iraq by calling a conference of regional foreign ministers to a meeting next week. At the same time, it seems that Turkey will allow the US to use their bases in the country and the Turkish air space to invade Iraq even if, in the last few days, Gul visited many Middle Eastern capitals to try to prevent the war. He also discussed a Saudi plan to offer amnesty to senior Iraqi officials in order to encourage them to depose Saddam Hussein. He wrote to Saddam Hussein requesting him to comply with the UN requests in full, and of the danger of not doing it. Gul is also said to be interested in an Egyptian plan to persuade Saddam to step down.
On January 20, 2003, Turkey was preparing for a possible war with Iraq while, at the same time, initiating diplomatic actions to stop the war. The US Chief of Staff, Air Force General Richard Myers, was in Turkey to try to persuade the Turkish government to let the US use its bases there, as well as the air space, in case of a war. The Turkish government would like to help the US, but the public opinion is dead against it.
On January 22, 2003, France and Germany agreed to work together to prevent a war in Iraq. As a direct result, many European countries members of NATO vetoed an US request for Nato help in an attack on Iraq. Only Spain and the UK were ready to agree to this request, but they were a minority. Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, said that the position of France and Germany was a "problem", and he added that France and Germany were "old Europe", and that the modern one was to the "east". Will Doggy Blair be happy with it? In other words, countries that agree with the US are good, and the others are the "baddies". And most Americans believe that this is true!
On February 10, 11 and 12, 2003, there were many meetings between the ambassadors to NATO to discuss the request to send some military materials and specialists to Turkey to help this country defends itself in case of a war with Iraq. France, Germany and Belgium did not bulge from refusing. A compromise was reached on February 16, 2003. NATO General Secretary, Lord Robertson, had the decision taken by the NATO Defence Planning Committee where France does not sit since it withdrew from the integrated military structure of the alliance in 1966. At the same time, Washington announced that they are studying a plan to move some military bases from Germany to Eastern Europe that is seen as being more receptive to American requests.
On February 12 Turkey refused to admit British troops on its territory in support of the American soldiers already there to prepare a northern front against Iraq. The Turks do not trust the British as far as the Kurds are concerned; they believe that they could help them against the wishes of Turkey.
On February 12, 2003, the editor of the British newspaper The Guardian wrote that perhaps the decision by France, Germany and Belgium to veto any military help to Turkey at that stage is not so wrong after all. It is known that the US plans to invade northern Iraq from Turkey, and this could very well start a conflagration in Kurdish territory involving Turkey, the USA, Iraq and even Iran. Turkey is already sending more troops and equipment to the border, and it is known that Turkey would like to annex a large part of Iraqi territory. Moreover Turkey is against allowing the Kurds to gain control of the Mosul and Kirkuk oil field, and against the creation of a Kurdish state. This explains why they refused to put their soldiers under US command; they want to keep a freehand there as part of a possible agreement to let 40,000 US soldiers attacking Iraq from their country. It is certain that the Kurds will oppose a Turkish bid to annex part of their territory. The row at the NATO could be explained in another way; the American request for NATO to send some troops to Turkey is not about defending this country, as the USA says, but to provide back-up to a joint invasion of Iraq by US and Turk troops. In this view, the French, German and Belgium's objections are justified.
In Spain, the ruling party of Mr Aznar is loosing ground following its complete support of Bush's politics. Outside the EU, Turkey is delaying a decision allowing US soldiers to invade Iraq from their country. The internal opposition, political and religious, is very strong, and the government does not know how to say yes -and they want to do it in exchange for financial help estimated at ten of billions of US dollars- and keep its followers. Only to balance things, the US propaganda machine inform us on February 18, 2003, that the Iraqi Defence Minister, Lieutenant-general Sultan Hashim Ahmad al-Jabburi Tai, was under house arrest, because he was thought to be preparing a coup. However, he goes on doing his work under escort, apparently "so that everything looks normal in Iraq". It is a fact that a coup would perhaps solve the Iraqi problem, but it is doubtful that it would satisfy president Bush who would still invade Iraq to grab its oil.
On March 2, 2003, the Turkish Parliament refused to authorise the 62,000 US soldiers and an untold number of planes to attack Northern Iraq from Turkish soil. This could delay the start of the war by one week, as the Americans have to change their plans. It is still possible that a new vote could change that decision but, in the meantime, the Americans are looking for an alternative plan. There are more and more evidence that Turkey would like to use the American war on Iraq to crush the independence bid of the Kurds living in the northern part of Iraq. More Kurds (13 millions) are living in Turkey where they are discriminated and oppressed while many others live in Iran. The Kurds believe that as many as 60,000 Turk soldiers could invade northern Iraq and occupy their region following the US invasion. On the other hand, the Turks do not want the Kurds to take over the oil fields of Kirkuk. That would give them the resources to proclaim an independent Kurdish state that would destabilise the region, including the southeast of Turkey where the Turkish Kurds live.
The so-called new-Europe is ready to help the USA in its war against Iraq,
in exchange for money, of course:
- Poland has already elite commandos in the Gulf under American command.
- Czech Republic has anti-chemical warfare unit in the Gulf to take part in
the war with or without UN mandate.
- Slovakia is sending a unit to joint Czechs.
- Hungary has given the USA the Taszar air base for training Iraqi exile militia.
- Albania has offered whatever Washington wants.
- Romania is making ports and air bases, such as Constanta, available.
- Bulgaria has turned over Burgas airport to the USA and is also sending anti-chemical
warfare troops to the Gulf.
On March 13, 2003, the Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayip Erdogan, asked the parliament to re-examine the proposal to allow the US troops to attack Iraq from northern Turkey. In exchange Turkey would receive about $25bm in gift and loans badly needed to support the economy. This is understandable, as the Turks are well known for their ability to bargain. But in this kind of souk-like transactions, the sucker is the payer.
As Turkey has not yet agreed (March 16, 2003) to let US troops use its territory to invade Iraq from the north, the US told them to keep out of the war and, especially, not to invade Northern Iraq, the Kurdish region. Many people in eastern Turkey are already leaving their homes as fear of war and retaliation by the Muslim Iraqi is growing fast. Turkey has also been told to forget the $15bn war compensation that the US had offered for their help. The Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayip Erdogan, intends to ask again the Parliament to let the US troops in Turkey, but it will take a few more days and could come too late.
On March 19, 2003, the Turkish Parliament agreed to let the US use the Turkish airspace, but not their military bases. This is a compromise between the wish of the government to get the American promised money (about $15bn), and the public opinion that does not want Turkey to be involved in the war.
On March 19, 2003, President Chirac and the French people were furious because
the British government -Blair and Straw- blamed France for the war. The relations
between the two countries are at their lower level for a long time, and this
could create problems in the European Union. The British forget that they
have moved about 45,000 troops to Kuwait together with the 200,000 Americans,
that they stated publicly they would invade Iraq with or without a UN Security
Council new resolution. In fact, both countries wanted to invade Iraq in any
circumstances, even if the inspectors had had the time to prove that the Iraqi
had no weapons of mass destruction. Politically speaking, they would have
been unable to justify bringing home their soldiers without attacking Iraq.
Moreover Bush wants to be re-elected and gain control of the Iraqi oil fields.
Now the British are sponsoring two new UN Security Council resolutions asking
the world to help finance the reconstruction of what they will have destroyed
in Iraq. It will be interesting to see what the French, German and Russian
will be doing.